Putin’s long-term goal remains total control of Ukraine : U.S. intelligence report

Sources told Reuters that these intelligence reports contradict statements made by U.S. President Donald Trump and his peace negotiation team. Trump and his representatives have repeatedly claimed that Putin wants an end to the conflict. One source said the latest intelligence report was prepared in late September.
 

The intelligence assessment also refutes claims that Putin poses no threat to Europe. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, U.S. intelligence evaluations have remained largely consistent. They also align with the views of European leaders and intelligence agencies, who believe Putin aims to seize all of Ukraine and reclaim territory in former Soviet-bloc countries, including parts of NATO member states.
 

Speaking to Reuters, Democratic Congressman Mike Quigley, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, said intelligence has consistently shown that Putin wants more. “The Europeans are convinced of this. Poland is absolutely convinced. The Baltic states believe they are first in line,” he said.
 

Russia currently controls about 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory, including large parts of the Donbas industrial region Luhansk and Donetsk along with areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and the strategic Black Sea peninsula of Crimea. Putin claims Crimea and these four regions as part of Russia.
 

Two sources said that as part of a proposed peace deal, Trump is pressuring Kyiv to withdraw Ukrainian forces from a small area of Donetsk currently under Ukrainian control. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and most Ukrainians have rejected such demands.
 

A White House official said the president’s team has made significant progress toward ending the war and that a peace agreement is closer than ever, but declined to comment on the intelligence report.
 

Meanwhile, in a post on X on Saturday, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said lawmakers had been informed that Russia wants to avoid a major war with Europe, and that Russia’s military performance in Ukraine has shown it currently lacks the capacity to conquer even Ukraine let alone all of Europe. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the CIA, and the Russian embassy did not immediately respond to Reuters’ requests for comment.
 

Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and real estate developer Steve Witkoff have been holding discussions for several weeks with Ukrainian, Russian, and European officials on a 20-point peace plan. While U.S. officials have spoken of progress, major disagreements remain over territorial issues.
 

According to a White House official, Kushner and Witkoff met Ukrainian negotiators in Miami on Friday and were also expected to meet Russian representatives. On Monday in Berlin, U.S., Ukrainian, and European negotiators reportedly reached broad consensus on U.S.-backed security guarantees for Ukraine’s future.
 

One source and one diplomat said these guarantees could depend on Zelenskyy agreeing to territorial concessions. Other diplomats, however, said this was not the case, noting that alternative options are being considered because Zelenskyy has rejected giving up territory.
 

Diplomats said the guarantees envisioned include the deployment of a European-led security force in neighboring countries and inside Ukraine, away from the front lines, to take effect after a peace agreement is signed. One source said Ukraine’s army could be capped at 800,000 troops, though several diplomats said Russia wants a smaller force—an issue the United States is willing to discuss.
 

They added that the United States would provide intelligence support and other assistance, and that the full package would be approved by the U.S. Senate. According to two sources familiar with the talks, U.S.-backed aerial patrols over Ukraine are also part of the plan.
 

However, Zelenskyy voiced caution about the proposals on Thursday, saying one key question remains unanswered: what exactly will these security guarantees do?
 

Uncertainty also remains over whether Putin would agree to such guarantees, as he has repeatedly rejected the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine.
 

At his annual press conference on Friday, Putin said he was open to peace talks but offered no sign of concessions. He said Russia’s forces had advanced 6,000 square kilometers this year and that his conditions must be met.
 

It remains unclear how Washington will respond to Moscow’s demands. Witkoff has previously suggested that Russia has a “right” to claim the four regions and Crimea. Some Trump administration officials have acknowledged that Putin may not be willing to retreat from his original objective of taking Ukraine.
 

At a press conference on Friday, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said, “I don’t know whether Putin wants a deal or wants to take the whole country. He has said these things openly. We know what they wanted to achieve at the start of the war—and they have not achieved that goal.”