Ukraine faces a severe population decline

The situation in Ukraine has become so dire that while many hospitals are struggling to cope with the continuous influx of war-wounded, a maternity ward in the western city of Khoscha remains shockingly empty.
 

By the time reports were filed this year, only 139 births had been recorded in the Khoscha hospital, compared to 164 in 2024, and more than a decade ago, over 400 babies were born there annually, according to local authorities.
 

Gynecologist Yevhen Hekkel expressed his sorrow in his office, saying, “Many young men have died. Clearly, these young men were supposed to replenish Ukraine’s next gene pool.”
 

As Ukraine moves toward a demographic disaster, authorities are grappling with a crucial question: ‘When the war ends, who will be left to rebuild the shattered country?’
 

Over nearly four years of war, millions have been killed or injured, and millions more have fled the country. Consequently, the birth rate has plummeted.
 

Khoscha is a small town of about 5,000 residents, located several hundred miles from the nearest border. Yet it is now facing the most severe population crisis. A school in the nearby Sadov village, which once had over 200 students, has been closed due to a lack of students.

Mykola Panchuk, head of the Khoscha Town Council, told the media, “We were forced to close the school two years ago because there were only nine children enrolled.”
 

Millions Needed for National Reconstruction

According to the Population Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, before the full-scale war began in February 2022, Ukraine’s population was 42 million, which has already dropped below 36 million, including several million in Russian-occupied areas.
 

It is estimated that by 2051, the population could decline to 25 million, signaling a catastrophic demographic decline.
 

According to the CIA World Factbook 2024 estimates, Ukraine has both the world’s highest death rate and the lowest birth rate, with roughly three deaths for every birth.
 

Death Rate Exceeds Birth Rate Across All Regions

In 2024, deaths exceeded births in every region of Ukraine. Birth rates have fallen everywhere, with the steepest declines in frontline-adjacent areas.
 

Government data shows that Ukraine’s average male life expectancy fell from 65.2 years before the war to 57.3 years in 2024, while for females it dropped from 74.4 to 70.9 years.
 

Experts and politicians warn that a war-torn Ukraine will need millions of people to rebuild its fragile economy and defend itself in case Moscow attacks again in the post-war future a need many Ukrainians fear may be impossible to meet.
 

Last year, the Kyiv government attempted to address this crisis while drafting a population strategy for 2040. The document warned that Ukraine will face a shortage of 4.5 million workers in the next decade. The sectors expected to experience the greatest labor shortages include construction, technology, and administrative services.
 

The strategy emphasizes restricting emigration, bringing Ukrainians back from abroad, improving housing, infrastructure, and education, and, where job vacancies exist, attracting migrants from other countries.